Negative demographic trends

Due to negative demographic trends, Russia will have to close 733 schools because there is not children. Experts predict that the number of people in Russian Federation till 2030 decrease for 10%, what is alarming.

“We don’t have enough children”, says director of Russian Public health agency Genadij Oniščenko, in an interview for agency Interfaks. But , by closing the school , at the beginning it is questionable the politics of spreading global influence  of big country through so-called soft power, or by active promotion of Russian language and culture outside state boarders.

The fact that demographic crisis for long time is main problem of Russian economy was recently confirmed by Aleksandar Morozov, main economist in British financial institution – HSBC, in charge of Russia and CIS countries, made from ex Soviet countries. In an interview for Russian edition of magazine Forbes, , he called this feature – demographic  “war echo”. Because before the wars and during the number of new born babies  naturally decreased. On the other hand, when the peace comes, this number rapidly increase.

Russia is already, for more than two decades , trying to recover from worthless war against Afghanistan, break down of Soviet Union and Warsaw pact, new war this time in Chechnya. All this was followed by huge changes on social and political plan, shock therapies in parts of economy, but also in disclaimer of Soviet canon and wandering in search for modern society which will successfully balance all kinds of changes spreading around the country- From Far East to west boarders.

In all that first victim is- birth rate. In country where today, according to datas from April this year , lives 143,4 million citizens, currently works more than 44 000 school, But, statistics also show that despite the increase in birth rate comparing to previous years (1,90 million new born babies in 2012), the number of children deaths is also in increase. So in year 2012 the number of born and died children on 1000 totally equal, and it is 13,3. President Vladimir Putin, last year, appealed on Russian families to increase number of children, at least three, since it is the only natural way to strength the nation and moves forward. In contrary, as United nation experts predict, Russia can expect demographic disaster.

All mentioned, says Morozov, will cost Russia 1% of gross national income. And years in advance. In fact, the number of those who start working is smaller and smaller, and there is more and more of those whose working age is at the end, or over. Decrease in the number of young people on working market and need for services of high education. Also , industry that work with production of goods and services used by young people- from specific meals, entertainment, to fashion details- can reach serious crisis. On the other hand, the number of old people is rising, pensioners who need other services. This means maintaining of social status of this group of people, as well as bigger investments in medical services.

According to Morozov, this puts in front of comities delicate task of technological reconstruction and creation of production which will demand less direct work of people. Special problem is the size of Russian territory where the average population is  8,4 persons on square meter. Huge parts of east, over Ural part of the country is practically deserted. Majority of inhabitants look for life chance in European part of Russia, if possible in big cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Recent demographic research showed that 74 % of Russians live in towns-

Experts predict that till 2030 the number of Russians will decrease 10%.The number of ethnic Russians will decrease the most, while the number of Muslims and immigrants will be higher so they could till year 2030 be 16% of total population. Due to decrease of population, even Russian army has to cut down on active system.

Russian “battle for babies” is not announced recently. It started when USSR broke down. Anyway, results are not good. This could make authorities in Moscow to open boarders widely for immigrants and to pay attention to parts of country (Far East) which were till now totally forgiven by authorities in Moscow. And that asks for big social reforms and more moderate politics to minority communities.

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