AKCIJSKI PLAN VLADIMIRA PUTINA ‘Želim 75 posto Ine: Evo što vam nudimo zauzvrat’

Modernization of Rijeka refinery and Janaf, and Sisak becomes regional distributive centre.

After Russian president Vladimir Putin and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban have generally agreed that Rosneft, the biggest Russian oil company, to buy from Hungarian Mol 49,08 % shares of  Ina, in Moscow is allegedly prepared the offer which will, according to those who have an insight, Zagreb hard refuse. Russians don’t hide that they have much bigger plans and ambitions than buying majority of shares in Ina and prepare the package of measures which consists of whole range of projects which would, if realized, powerfully influence on the recovery of Croatian economy. Oil giant  Rosneft, 75 % owned by state and which is due to that decided to be the holder of all operation, after buying in total 75 % of shares of Ina intends in Sisak close old oil plants, which are however without any perspective, and they plan on their place build huge oil and oil products warehouse.

Sisak without refinery

Sisak would, according to Russian plans, become central supply centre for whole region. At the same time, Rosneft would close its refinery in Bosanski Brod which produce small amounts of oil products, but creates huge losses and enormously pollute the air in Slavonski Brod and surroundings.

But, on the territory of BIH, which creates huge dissatisfaction in neighbour country. Also Rosneft is interested for construction of product pipelines which would connect harbour and refinery Rijeka with the warehouses in Sisak. Since there is already arranged track where the oil pipeline go through and that there is not any problems with property relations, that product pipelines, which would transfer oil products, first of all gasoline and diesel fuel, it could be build soon relatively cheap. If they become major owners of Ina, Russians are interested for spreading of capacities of harbour Rijeka and for modernization of refinery in Rijeka. Both of these are extremely important: harbour in Rijeka for two decades seriously retrogresses and according to capacity and turnover is seriously left behind for Slovenian harbour Kopar, and without extension of coking plants where the waste would be processed left after the oil processing into gasoline and diesel fuel, refinery Rijeka can not survive. Russians also announce that they will intense cooperation with Croatian shipyards, and they are the most interested in shipyard in Kraljevica.

Moscow at the same time wants the problems with Russian investments in Croatia to be solved. First of all to start finally the construction of hotel settlement Haludovo which for years stays totally devastated. The owner of this complex, Russian businessman Ara Abrahamyan, claims that he can’t do anything while property relations are not solved till the end.

Old problems

Also, he will also ask to finally de block capital which was put in the bank by Russian businessman Jevtušenko as guaranty for buying the property on Mljet.

And for sure, in the end, will renew the question of participation of Croatia in construction of oil pipeline South flow.

Along with that Rosneft, as claimed by informed, still has in the pocket two strong assets which should contribute  that Croatian side persuades for an agreement. From the bisuness with Rosneft the biggest benefit would have JANAF, which is even now mostly used by Russians, because through it would be transpored additional amounts of Russian oil intended for refinery in Pančevo which is under the ownership of  second Russian oil and gas giant Gazprom.By the newly constructed  product pipelines would be transferred oil products from Pančevo to harbour Rijeka, And most important, if Russian become the owners of Ina, than their part of oil could be delivered by ships to Rijeka and process in their refinery.

And finally, due to Russian role and an influence on war happenings in Siria, Rosneft could, long before than Ina and Mol, solve the problem of lost oil and gas fields of Ina in that country. Because of the decision of government of Zoran Milanović to go out of Siria at the beginning of the war, without Russian political engagement it would be mission impossible.

Even though Russian and Hungarian sides have made an agreement on sale and buying of shares of Ina, the key for successful conclusion of this mega business is in hands of government of Zoran Milanović. Without its readiness to sell to Russian 18% of shares of Ina with the term that the government holds the rest of 25 % + 1 share, there would be nothing of this business. Because not Rosneft or other company wouldn’t invest few milliard dollars and not having the major ownership. But there should be not problems on this issue. Government, doesn’t have around 2,5 milliard dollars to repurchase from Mol its 47 % shares of Ina, and it is crucial that Ina leaves the impasse where it is now. Every further prolongation, connected to uncertain ownership relations, will impose the destroy of the company which will only contribute to loss of its value.

Due to getting worse of the situation on the market of oil and oil products constantly, that the oil and gas consumption on the world level is constantly decreasing, and that there are more and more oil, gas, gasoline excess, only diesel fuel, which cause the fall of prices, many so far high valued oil companies fall into bigger and bigger problems. Even the biggest oil giants, like Exonn and Shell try to free themselves from refineries, distribution of businesses and wholesale and retail, because all activities do business on the edge of profitability or even with losses.

Fall of oil purchase

The biggest problems are refineries and gas stations which due to small profits hardly make the ends meet. Today is, according to the experts, good to have refineries which have production capacities from 10 to 15 million tones of oil per year. Everything under that creates losses. And refinery in Rijeka hardly produce around 2,5 million tones per year.

Because of all that for Croatian side is of vital interest to solve the ownership relations in Ina as soon as possible, because current situation is unbearable for longer period and it could, for Zagreb and Budapest, finish in total disaster and loss of milliard dollars.

Right because of current relations in world oil market, Rosneft is probably a good opportunity for Mol and government of Zoran Milanović. After purchase  for 35 milliard dollars oil company TNK BP, Rosneft became the biggest Russian oil company. Its 106.000 employed people in production and oil and petrochemistry products in 2012 made the turnover higher than 102milliard dollars, while profit reached 11,1 milliard dollars. Rosneft recently with China made agreement for the business of oil export to that country in the amount of 270 milliard dollars.

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